NRL Round 9
My Game Handicaps | Market (handicap and total points are market)
-0.5
-1.5 Bulldogs vs Cowboys | 50.5
-4.5
-3.5 Dolphins vs Storm | 53.5
-5.5
-4.5 Titans vs Raiders | 53.5
+9.5
+6.5 Eels vs Warriors | 53.5
-2.5
-5.5 Roosters vs Broncos | 51.5
-1.5
-1.5 Knights vs Rabbitohs | 52.5
-5.5
7.5 Sharks vs Tigers | 52.5
-14.5
-12.5 Panthers vs Sea Eagles | 50.5
My Bets
4.5u Warriors -7.5 $1.90 BB
3.5u Panthers-Sea Eagles under 50.5 $1.90
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Notes
4.5u Warriors -7.5 $1.90 BB
Eels keep leaking way too many points, Wahs look a top 4 side, can be very physical then build pressure and points, like the set up here
3.5u Panthers-Sea Eagles under 50.5 $1.90
I expect Fogarty is also an out with Turbo, which then drops 10 to 14 pts off their attack; expect that Eagles attitude and D effort is good, so overall this profiles as less of a blow out and over 50
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Staking notes at the base of this message thread
My Line Picks
Cowboys plus
Dolphins minus
Titans minus
Warriors minus
Broncos plus
Rabbits minus
Sharks minus
Panthers minus
Game Tips
Cowboys by 4
Dolphins by 4
Titans by 6
Warriors by 18
Broncos by 2
Rabbits by 8
Sharks by 8
Panthers by 16
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
Bulldogs vs Cowboys
Two teams impossible to trust, Cows tho have attack and points, Dogs don’t (average 12.3 sets with the ball to score a try.. say that slowly). King, Kikau, Hayes and Kiraz also key outs, off two games they should have won and leaking 38 and 32. Cows record H2H and at ground is also good. Could have three goes at this and be wrong.. Cowboys
Dolphins vs Storm
Phins two distant away games now at home; but troubles with key roles at #9 and #6 and a 30% error rate means 2 wins from 7 to date and lost their last 4.. Has anyone mentions the Storm have some troubles.. have now lost 6 straight and club has never lost 7.. No Hughes, rank 16th in attack in comp last 5 and you guessed the D is even worse.. Who holds the most desperation? Dolphins
Titans vs Raiders
The Green Machine is getting whacked by an arduous travel schedule, key injury outs and a right edge that defends as well as the Storm’s left side. Oh, and some horrible ill discipline with 12 errors a game (and the 6 agains and penalties). Titans get their chance here, whacked Eels, credible offering week prior to Broncos then last 30 v Wahs, off bye will help. Like the local ambush here. Titans
Eels vs Warriors
Bottom 3 side vs top 4 opponent even at Parramatta looks lop sided. Eels D has been atrocious, yes long list of injury outs but some of the attitude like the second half last week just horrible. Warriors also have some injury issues but the depth and aim up offering has been impressive, plus the best final 20mtr red zone attack in the comp. Like Warriors
Roosters vs Broncos
Winning form beats losing form every day of the week, and while I rate the Roosters a top 4 challenger this year, the recent form line looks questionable, so very nice test here. They have strike, nice match up through the middle, but under some pressure can also have a lot of errors in them. Broncos win last weekend up there with some of club history, and the week prior not far behind, Reynolds has been absolutely outstanding and there are a lot here building belief and a turn up and roll the sleeves up offering. Quality game, Walsh and Carrigan back tops it off, think the visitors can give this a shake. Broncos
Knights vs Rabbitohs
Knights, another who have been hurt through the last 6 weeks with key outs, but with Brown back last week and now a further 5 key ins this week, this is their strongest line up season to date, and they will improve significantly here (home). Rabbits produced one of their best for many years last week, deposing of the Melbourne curse, some risk of let down, and a far harder opponent. Good contest, like what the red and green mob are doing. Rabbits
Sharks vs Tigers
Sharks in Townsville for the Nth Qld legs of the touch footy finals series were just horrible, leaking 46 in an 80 pt game with a thousand missed tackles.. As their coach said they have some major attitude realignment to do. Shark Park home game set ups like this are normally a walk in the park, but major watch on what they bring here. Tigers have W’s 4 of last 5 and offered resolve, significantly improved D and some great ball shift attack, but now 3 significant outs here, notably Koroisau, who has just been in sublime form (and they have lost 7 of last 8 when without him). Trick game, small lean to Sharks being good enough at home. Sharks
Panthers vs Sea Eagles
Fozball meets the Panthers juggernaut in what sets up as a very interesting test. Clearly, Foran has had their attitude right, and I do expect that they bring a lot of D effort and resolve here, but clearly this is a major step up (or three). No Turbo, and I expect Fogarty doesn’t play, drops a further 10 to 14pts off their attack strike potential and raises big questions on the kicking game length and field position. Panthers are the measuring stick, expect they just work through the gears and eventually put this one to bed by 3 tries. Panthers
Odds Comparison
Aus Sports Betting Odds Comparison
Staking
Our likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to max 5 units (and this is also a reflection of confidence.
Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting). Some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting unit is likely to work for you and call this your betting unit, remembering that you may have approx. 5 to 10 units of recommended outlay per week per sport and that you also run the risk of losing.
Longer Term | Futures Plays
3u Titans most losses $4.00 (12th March)
4u Storm to miss Top 8 $3.70 (pre-season)
3u Titans Most Losses (Spoon) $5.00 (pre-season)
6.5u Titans Bottom 4 $1.91 (pre-season)
3u Titans winless after 6 rounds $6.50 (pre-season)
4.5u Roosters Top 4 $2.30 (pre-season)
4.5u Warriors Top 8 $2.30 (pre-season)
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